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最新报告
- 结售汇顺差同比增长位于数据历史新低，贸易盈余目前并未完全转化为人民币流动性，但此本币流动性转化将不日将至。这个现象阐释了2022年创纪录的贸易盈余和股市的分道扬镳，也为未来市场的修复埋下了流动性的伏笔。
- 人民币隐含波动率和交易员的美元仓位水平尚未有强烈的交易信号，而北向买盘在近期止步不前。经济复苏的图景正渐次展开。稍安勿躁，静待时机。
Hao Hong: The Puzzle of “Vanishing Surplus”
- FX settlement growth at record low, trade surplus has not yet been converted to yuan liquidity fully but will likely so. It explains the disconnect between record surplus and plunging stocks in 2022.
- The yuan vol and traders’ USD positions are not sending out strong trading signals, while northbound buying has hit a near-term wall. Bide your time, while waiting for the recovery to unfold.