跳至内容
- 中国PPI，十年期债券收益率和美国就业数据表明美国通胀已然见顶。这些指标和相关性并未被市场广泛讨论。然而，通胀放缓也预示着美国经济的衰退。
- 不同于美国市场，股债之间的对冲关系在中国仍然行之有效。中国还是一个正常运转的市场，因此其资产价格蕴含的信息应更有前瞻性。中国十年期债券收益率上行，与中概股背道而驰。鉴于中国通胀不温不火，若债券收益率上升意味着增长复苏，那么中概股迟早应迎头赶上。买者自负：其他地缘政治因素也不可小觑。
- 港股严重超卖。尽管美国衰退风险黑云压城，但这里应该有一个交易机会。
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- Chinese PPI, Chinese 10-year yield and US NFIB hiring data suggest US inflation has peaked. These are obscure indicators/relationships. But slowing inflation augurs for a US recession – it is not a cause for rejoice.
- The hedging relationship between stocks and bonds still works in China – unlike in the US. As such, China is still a normal market where prices can be more informative.
- Hong Kong is deeply oversold. Despite US recession risks, there is a trade here.
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- Chinese property sector now a zero-sum game and inversely correlates with the overall market. Property easing doesn’t necessarily mean broad market rally.
- Property is highly correlated with China’s macro savings rate. The lower the savings rate, the better the property sector. But leverage will also be higher.
- Hong Kong is cheap, with neutral to positive technical signs. Patience.
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- 中国房地产现在已经进入存量博弈；房地产板块变得与整体市场负相关。因此，房地产放宽并不一定意味着市场整体上涨。
- 房地产与中国宏观储蓄率高度相关。储蓄率越低，房地产越好。但家庭杠杆率也越高。
- 港股估值非常便宜，并开始发出一些中性甚至是积极的技术信号。风物长宜。
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