跳至内容
- 诸行无常：大千万物都是刹那生灭、转瞬即逝的。在市场极端情况下，色即是空，空即是色。
- 诸行是苦：市场情绪在欲望和恐惧间回旋摇摆。执于获利使我们为大悲大喜的俗情杂务所烦扰。要萧然物外，方能自得天机。
- 诸法无我：市场在周期中循环往复地运行。千金散尽，天生我材。
继续阅读“洪灝 : 2022年启示录”
- Impermanence: everything is ephemeral. At market extremes, bears are bulls. And vice versa.
- Sentiment: market swings between lusts and fears. The obsession with profit plunges us into emotional euphoria and panic. Rise above it.
- Cycles: The market runs in cycle. What is lost will be found again.
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- 中国央行继续宽松。降息降准可期，房地产继续托底，宏观杠杆率将上升。虽然这并非量宽，却也不是隔靴搔痒。
- 中国M2的增速超过了信贷增长。金融系统中流动性充沛，但借贷意愿不高。宽松政策见效仍有待时日。
- 公共与私人部门，国内与国外需求，上游与下游价差的三大维度的分歧体现于M2和新增信贷，人民币走势以及CPI和PPI的差值，并显示经济周期正逐步触底修复。
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- The PBoC continues to ease. Interest rate/RRR cuts should be expected, property will be supported, leverage will rise. While not QE, it is not petty.
- China’s M2 is expanding faster than credit. There is plenty of liquidity in the system, but few takers. It will take some time for the easing policies to work.
- Three divergences, public vs. private, domestic vs. foreign, up- vs. downstream, as shown in M2 vs. new loans, the CNY, and CPI vs. PPI are hinting at a cyclical recovery.
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