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Hao Hong: Savings Glut Fuel for Spring Rally

  • Consensus is mistakenly over analyzing the activity data during the Spring Festival. Good data mean recovery, bad data suggest more stimulus. Indeed, PBoC’s balance sheet expansion has heralded a positive turn in economic cycle.
  • With data vacuum, we are at the inception of intense speculation. China’s savings glut many taken as a sign of extreme risk aversion can be the fuel for a spring rally.
  • Stay bullish.
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洪灝:超额储蓄加油春季行情

  • 共识过分关注和解读春节数据,其实是不得要领。数据好就是复苏,数据差就是更多的刺激。其实,央行资产负债表的扩张早已预示经济周期回暖。
  • 数据真空之际,一场投机鏖战拉开序幕。中国的超额储蓄被共识视作极度风险厌恶的迹象,但在我们看来,其实是春季攻势的动力引擎。
  • 磨砺以须,继续看多做多。
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洪灝 : 2022年启示录

  • 诸行无常:大千万物都是刹那生灭、转瞬即逝的。在市场极端情况下,色即是空,空即是色。
  • 诸行是苦:市场情绪在欲望和恐惧间回旋摇摆。执于获利使我们为大悲大喜的俗情杂务所烦扰。要萧然物外,方能自得天机。
  • 诸法无我:市场在周期中循环往复地运行。千金散尽,天生我材。
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