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Hao Hong | Outlook 2024: A Year of Normalization

  • Year two of normalization with similar trading range. The biggest normalization of 2023 is that China emerged from COVID. An extended period of seclusion naturally breeds confusion. But with improved communication, as evidenced by high-level exchanges between both sides and increased international traffic, foreign relationship should improve.

    At the darkest hours of last October, we were the lone voice for optimism and forecasted that the Shanghai Composite should trade between ~3,000 and 3,500, while the Hang Seng should trade between ~16,000 and 23,000 in the following 12 months. The actual trading range was 2,924 to 3,419 for Shanghai, and 15,945 to 22,700 for Hang Seng. We look for an extension of this trading range in the coming 12 months.
        
  • CNY weakness/China-US yield gap at extremes and set to normalize. As the Fed tightens relentless while the PBOC eases to support the Chinese economy, the China-US yield gap has widened to its largest in history and comparable to the level in early 2006. Such wide and stable yield gap presents a carry trade opportunity for speculators, and weakens foreign confidence and investment return from Chinese assets.

    Fortunately, the CNY REER has reached its cyclical lows, and the market is starting to price in four Fed cuts in 2024. As such, the historic weakness of the CNY should trough, while the yield gap should narrow. Such normalization should alleviate the pressure on fund flows and Chinese assets, and spur intermittent market rebounds and rallies.  
  • PBOC sterilization to wane after strong liquidity growth; fiscal policies coming. The PBOC does not appear to be shortening its balance sheet, with higher foreign assets holdings and steady free reserves. This is not a balance sheet of heavy FX intervention, despite capital outflows. Strong deposit growth, or “excess saving”, is in tandem with China’s surplus in goods trade vs current account.

    That said, property malaise will likely take a few years to heal, given the current inventory buildup. As such, deposits balance will unlikely be allocated systemically towards property or stocks, leaving an impression of an economy beset by weakness. In 2023 property statistics worsen further from 2022, with halved land sales, falling property investment and tepid sales growth. but China still manages 5% growth. It is likely to muddle through again in 2024.

    As liquidity growth normalizes, fiscal policies will likely take over as a more important stabilizer of growth. Local government debt can be swapped for central government bonds, its maturity can be extended, and interest rate can be cut. For the embattled developers, they need to plan for an extended period with annual sales well under 10 trillion RMB, as the breakneck urbanization pace normalizes and demographic ages. These changes will create headline risks for the market, making any rebound more capricious to trade. 
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洪灝 | 展望2024:无往不复

  • 复常的第二年,交易区间延续。2023年的复常大事当属大国重启。隔离之日难免陷于彷徨。但随着交流复通,一如双方高层对话不断和跨境往来频增所示,都将促进成就相互的理解。

    在去年十月底的至暗时刻,我们是市场上唯几的坚定看多的声音,并预测彼时12个月内,上证交易区间为约3,000点至3,500点,恒指交易于约16,000点至23,000点。在随后的十二个月里,上证实际交易区间为2,924点至3,419点,恒指实际交易区间为15,945点至22,700点。我们预计未来12个月里,这一交易区间将延续。

    值得一提的是,今年十月二十日的首席经济学家论坛上,我发表了主题演讲,称当天上证的2,940点是这轮行情的重要低点。迄今,中国市场已开始有所修复,虽然修复之路一波三折。
  • 人民币弱势/中美利差臻至极点,并应均值回归。随着美联储大刀阔斧收紧货币政策,而中国央行保持货币宽松以提振国内经济,中美利差已扩大至历史最宽,并与2006年初的历史水平等量齐观。如此平稳而宽厚的利差为投机者创造了套利交易的机会,并弱化了外资的信心和投资回报。

    所幸的是,人民币实际有效汇率已然触及周期性低点,且市场开始计入明年美联储的四次降息。故此,人民币的历史性弱势理应开始筑底,而中美利差也应收窄。这一息差复常有望缓和资金撤离和中国资产价格的压力,并助力市场间歇性反弹和修复。
  • 流动性充足,央行冲销力度减弱在即;财政政策有望发力。央行并未缩减其资产负债表,其持有的海外净资产有增无减,储备也保持稳定。尽管有资金撤离之忧,但央行的资产负债表看上去并不像是一张大规模外汇干预的表。强劲的存款增长,也就是所谓的“超额储蓄”,与中国货物贸易的顺差和经常账户顺差之差衔枚疾进。

    尽管如此,鉴于当前的库存积压,房地产很可能需要数年时间方可痊愈。如是,存款余额很难一如既往地系统性地配置到房产或股票,进而给市场留下经济看似疲软乏力的印象。其实,2023年地产统计数据较2022年已经低的基数每况愈下,土地销售减半,房地产开发投资下降,房屋销售增长不温不火。但中国仍有望实现5%的经济增长。明年也将能应对。

    随着流动性增长正常化,财政政策很可能会被委以重任,成为更举足轻重的增长压舱石。地方政府债务可以被置换成国债,偿债期限可以延长,利息负担亦可以调降。对于左支右绌的开发商而言,随着城镇化进入深水区和人口老龄化,他们需要为未来相当一段时间内年销售额远低于2021年17万亿元销售峰值的新常态未雨绸缪。这些变数都很容易产生新闻标题的负面舆情,从而令市场反弹难以择时,陡增交易难度。
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洪灝:谁是最大的熊?

  • 中国股市随美债跌跌不休。然而,鲜有人归咎于飙升的美债收益率。其实,美债才是一只更大的熊。
  • 黄金与美债收益率的历史相关性已破。黄金作为避风港比美债更坚挺。
  • 目前,铁矿石和石油是对于中国增长前景更直接的押注。股市的预期依然亟待政策的强心剂。
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Hao Hong: Fundamental Differences

  • Chinese stocks are plunging with US treasuries. Yet no one seems to blame surging US yields for the bane in Chinese stocks.
  • Gold’s historical correlation with US yields is breaking down. Safety in gold, and no longer in US treasuries.
  • For now, iron ore and oil are more direct bets than stocks on improving Chinese growth. More potent policy shots are needed to resurrect stocks.
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