Hao Hong: Savings Glut Fuel for Spring Rally

  • Consensus is mistakenly over analyzing the activity data during the Spring Festival. Good data mean recovery, bad data suggest more stimulus. Indeed, PBoC’s balance sheet expansion has heralded a positive turn in economic cycle.
  • With data vacuum, we are at the inception of intense speculation. China’s savings glut many taken as a sign of extreme risk aversion can be the fuel for a spring rally.
  • Stay bullish.

Hao Hong: “A Trillion-Dollar Tweet”

  • Last week’s epic rally started around the nadir seen in first COVID outbreak in Feb, 2020. Since then, the US welded its fiscal/monetary prowess, while China sticking to COVID-0. Chinese market is back to square one. The US will follow.
  • Both US and Chinese growth assets fell victim to a growth slump. Vietnam, the “Next China”, is not spared.
  • Hong Kong short covering. But soaring HIBOR augurs for volatility surge in the coming months originated from the US market.

Hao Hong: Whose Confidence Is Gold?

  • Confidence of various market participants is neutral to contrarianly positive, against a backdrop of better monetary environment.
  • As the 20th Congress proceeds and uncertainties subside, Chinese market will likely consolidate and even stumbling higher.
  • The US remains a significant overhang, and will disrupt Chinese markets.
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Hao Hong: Saving Hong Kong

  • Chinese PPI, Chinese 10-year yield and US NFIB hiring data suggest US inflation has peaked. These are obscure indicators/relationships. But slowing inflation augurs for a US recession – it is not a cause for rejoice.
  • The hedging relationship between stocks and bonds still works in China – unlike in the US. As such, China is still a normal market where prices can be more informative.
  • Hong Kong is deeply oversold. Despite US recession risks, there is a trade here.
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