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- 国资背景开发商的楼盘销售依然强劲，而它们的股价与民营房企已分道扬镳。购房需求很可能只是推迟延宕，而非云消雾散。
- 铁矿石价格的势头正在回升，往往领先长债收益率一个月、市场三个月。
- 迄今，市场的修复更多受估值而非基本面的推动。市场期盼政策神兵天降。中国私人部门的杠杆水平与1993年的日本等量齐观。这是一个值得倾注全力和资源的拐点。
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- SOE developers’ sales still rising strongly, and their stock prices are diverging from those of POEs. Thus, housing demand is probably delayed, not disappearing.
- The momentum in iron ore price is rising, and tends to lead long bond yield and market recovery by one and three months, respectively.
- So far, the market recovery is driven more by valuation than by fundamentals. Policies must deliver. And China’s private sector leverage is similar to that of Japan in 1993. It is a significant turning point that warrants all attentions and resources.
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- China’s record trade surplus mirrors the surge in deposits and M2. It is a testament of China’s manufacturing prowess. But such comparative advantage also means that Chinese exports have been the key to cope with the slowdown during the pandemic. The US demand is now being tampered with by the Fed, hampering China’s manufacturing and exports strength. As such, commodities, energy, and Chinese stocks are frail despite China’s reopen.
- Chinese households are overextended during the pandemic, and are not in a strong position to borrow more. This is why lending lags money growth, and “revenge consumption” is fleeting. Further, consumption is a much smaller part of the Chinese economy, and thus the foreign recovery experience won’t easily apply – contrary to consensus belief.
- If the US avoids a recession, Chinese manufacturing and exports will pull through. Bottoming industry profits and recovering confidence both in the US and China are hinting at rising probability. If so, the recovery will take some time to eventuate, and risk assets will perform later. If not, the market will take a dive, but then the PBoC will likely ease further to support the recovery – much like it did in 2014 to 2015. In either scenario, we must take a deep breath, and hold onto our faith a little longer.
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- 中国创纪录的贸易盈余使存款余额和M2激增。这正是中国制造业实力底气的有力明证。但这种比较优势也意味着中国出口一直是疫情期间支撑经济的擎天一柱。美联储的紧缩政策正压制着美国内需，由此影响了中国制造业和出口的势头。因此，尽管大国重启，大宗、能源和股市却表现平平。
- 疫情期间，中国家庭的杠杆率激增，如今进一步加杠杆的空间已有限。这恰恰解释了缘何贷款增速滞后于货币增长，而“报复性消费”如昙花一现。此外，消费在中国经济中的比重殊为有限，因此，橘生淮南，水土异也，海外的复苏经验无法轻易移植适用——这与共识对于复苏的认知相悖。
- 若美国能躲过衰退，中国制造业和出口势将关山横越。工业利润增速触底，中美消费者信心并肩回暖都暗示着此种情景的可能性正稳步上升。如是，经济全面复苏尚需时日，风险资产也终将有所表现。否则，若美国衰退，市场将先下行，但随后央行很可能会进一步宽松以助力复苏——一如2014年至2015年间所见那般。无论以上两场景哪一个最终出现，此刻都必须屏息凝神，咬定青山。
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