跳至内容
- 中国股市随美债跌跌不休。然而，鲜有人归咎于飙升的美债收益率。其实，美债才是一只更大的熊。
- 黄金与美债收益率的历史相关性已破。黄金作为避风港比美债更坚挺。
- 目前，铁矿石和石油是对于中国增长前景更直接的押注。股市的预期依然亟待政策的强心剂。
继续阅读“洪灝：谁是最大的熊？”
- Chinese stocks are plunging with US treasuries. Yet no one seems to blame surging US yields for the bane in Chinese stocks.
- Gold’s historical correlation with US yields is breaking down. Safety in gold, and no longer in US treasuries.
- For now, iron ore and oil are more direct bets than stocks on improving Chinese growth. More potent policy shots are needed to resurrect stocks.
Read MORE
- 杰克逊霍尔年会昭示了全球央行的殊途分歧和环球经济周期的步调不一。美债收益率飙升至08年新高，并与金价分道扬镳。一场范式的转变正悄然拉开序幕，但近期美股的抛售浪潮已然式微。
- 市场早已深谙印花税减征及其影响。这种政策调降所带来的情绪提振恐难持久，但其所蕴含的政策意图不应被等闲视之。
- 由周期性资产价格所反映的经济基本面迄今未能如从前那般随政策而动。市场需要更多的政策，也应最终如愿以偿。
继续阅读“洪灝：难念的经”
- Jackson Hole shows divergence in global central banks and dyssynchronization in global economic cycle. Yield surging to new highs and splitting from gold. A paradigm shift is afoot, but near term the US sell-off is abating.
- The market is well versed with the stamp duty cut and its effects. The sentiment boost from such a cut will be fleeting, but its policy intent should not be unheeded.
- Economic fundamentals, as reflected in the cyclical asset prices, have so far failed to respond to policies as they used to. More needs to be done, and will be.
Read MORE
