Hao Hong: The Puzzle of “Vanishing Surplus”

  • FX settlement growth at record low, trade surplus has not yet been converted to yuan liquidity fully but will likely so. It explains the disconnect between record surplus and plunging stocks in 2022.
  • The yuan vol and traders’ USD positions are not sending out strong trading signals, while northbound buying has hit a near-term wall. Bide your time, while waiting for the recovery to unfold.


  • 结售汇顺差同比增长位于数据历史新低,贸易盈余目前并未完全转化为人民币流动性,但此本币流动性转化不日将至。这个现象阐释了2022年创纪录的贸易盈余和股市的分道扬镳,也为未来市场的修复埋下了流动性的伏笔。
  • 人民币隐含波动率和交易员的美元仓位水平尚未有强烈的交易信号,而北向买盘在近期止步不前。经济复苏的图景正渐次展开。稍安勿躁,静待时机。


  • 恒指涨势于22,700点停滞不前,与我们于2022年10月底设定的23,000点目标,以及22,500点850周期线仅一步之遥。
  • 历经约三个月50%的大涨,获利了结的冲动难以忽略。在岸市场尚未对中国PMI重回扩张区间完全云合风应。
  • 但,一如我们的领先指标、指数估值和中国市场市值所昭示的那样,我们于2022年10月底捕捉到的的市场底部确乎是一个长期转折点。

Hao Hong: A Deadcat, or A New Bull?

  • The Hang Seng rally stalled at 22,700, vs. our price target of 23,000 set in late October 2022 and our 850-Cycle line of 22,500.
  • After a 50% rally in three months, the itch to take profit cannot be denied. Onshore market has yet to respond in full to China’s PMI re-expansion.
  • But – the market bottom we called in late October 2022 is indeed a secular turning point, as shown by our leading indicator, valuation and China’s market cap.